#MarkZandi
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chrisdima.bsky.social
60% probability of recession from @markzandi and team at @economics_ma buff.ly/VQSCISd
April 28, 2025 at 2:15 PM
dianeswonk.bsky.social
Will borrow a line from @MarkZandi - I have never been so uncertain about the outlook. Humility.

The @NYFedResearch is here.
June 11, 2025 at 6:08 PM
spinoza1960.bsky.social
JUST IN: @moodysratings economist @Markzandi says US Economy is on precipice of a recession based on three factors:

- payroll employment
- employment levels
- job decline consistency
August 12, 2025 at 10:08 PM
rweingarten.bsky.social
The signs are dangerous!! x.com/markzandi/st...
Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) on X
The economy is soft and vulnerable. This is the clear message in today’s GDP, income, and spending data. Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, real GDP growth is at best 2%, driven largely by AI-related investment and wealth effects that support consumer spending among the
x.com
July 31, 2026 at 2:56 AM
rweingarten.bsky.social
Even the attempts to hide the data can not- particularly when Americans see their housing, grocery and gas prices….. and now it’s obvious in the economic data as well x.com/markzandi/st...
x.com
July 31, 2026 at 12:58 AM
newsjennifer.bsky.social
Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi says:
- We are headed for a recession
-The BLS data is totally reliable- for now
-The revisions are due to delayed reporting of DOGE govt layoffs
-Higher tariffs are dragging down the economy
1/
Mark Zandi @Markzandi · 8h The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump. Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue. Unemployment remains low, but that’s only because labor force growth has gone sideways. The foreign-born workforce is shrinking, and labor force participation is declining. Telling is the economy-wide hiring freeze, particularly for recent graduates, and the decline in hours worked. Mark Zandi @Markzandi · 8h It’s no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing U.S. tariffs and highly restrictive immigration policy. The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.
August 3, 2025 at 11:16 PM
newsjennifer.bsky.social
2/
Mark Zandi @Markzandi · 8h By the way, any notion that the economic data misrepresents the reality of how the economy is performing is way off base. The data always suffers big revisions when the economy is at an inflection point, like a recession. It’s thus not at all surprising that we are seeing big downward revisions to the payroll employment numbers. Particularly given the DOGE cuts —not because the BLS has had to cut staff, although that can’t help, but because the government often reports payrolls to the BLS late. This didn’t matter much when government employment was stable, but now that government jobs are declining, the cuts are being picked up in the revisions.
August 3, 2025 at 11:16 PM
joebrusuelas.bsky.social
The K-Shaped American economy via @Markzandi and the excellent economists @economics_ma . When we get the Q4’25 data we can break spending down via household quintiles-which I prefer- and it will tell a similar tale. #Econ #EconSky
January 23, 2026 at 1:07 PM
editorialboard.bsky.social
Welcome back, stagflation. We miss you!
x.com/Markzandi/st...
Mark Zandi's Twitter feed: "We have a year’s worth of economic data since Liberation Day, when President Trump announced much higher tariffs on most imported goods and countries, and the data are definitive; the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy. Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls. Also, since that day, inflation has accelerated, with the consumer expenditure deflator increasing at a 3% year-over-year pace, up from 2.5% before the tariffs and well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. And the trend lines don’t look good, especially as the economic fallout from the Iran War hits with full force. The higher energy and other commodity prices caused by the war threaten to do even more economic damage than the tariffs, further undermining growth and pushing inflation higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested."
May 4, 2026 at 10:08 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Mark Zandi is Chief Economist at MoodysAnalytics. He rarely has anything to say about the markets, so I thought this might be of some interest.

Thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/20256...

#econsky
Mark Zandi @Markzandi. Feb 22 Financial markets feel increasingly fraught to me, with the elements for a meaningful selloff coming into place. This threat is highest for stocks and corporate bonds, but even crypto, gold, and silver remain at risk despite recent pullbacks. Valuations are high. There are good fundamental reasons for this, but markets appear increasingly tainted by speculation. That is, investors are simply investing on the faith that prices will rise quickly in the future because they have in the recent past. ...
February 23, 2026 at 5:08 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Here's what Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics had to say about it.
Mark Zandi @Markzandi. 8h There's no sugar coating the overarching message in the July jobs report - the economy is struggling. Job growth is at a virtual standstill, and concentrated in a few sectors. While unemployment is low, that's only because those losing their jobs are leaving the workforce, too discouraged to look for a job, as few businesses are hiring. Hours worked are low and are slumping lower. Wage growth continues to decelerate and is below the rate of inflation, a clear tell that the job market is operating below full-employment despite the low unemployment rate. No wonder most Americans say they are upset about their finances and the economy's performance.
August 7, 2026 at 10:06 PM
idogcapital.bsky.social
@markzandi.bsky.social over on twitter mulling over how close we are to a recession. Imho it’ll be very difficult to tell, given the wide variances in NX in Q1-Q2. He is predicting that the September QCEW may show payroll declines in Q2, not just payroll flattening.

x.com/markzandi/st...
x.com
August 10, 2025 at 10:06 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at MoodysAnalytics (@Markzandi at the other place) has been warning for several months that we're on the brink of recession - led by a slowing in labor participation. Now we're there.
'Edge of the cliff': A top economist says the US is in a full-blown labor recession that risks spilling into the rest of the economy
The dismal August jobs report on Friday did nothing to convince Mark Zandi that the US is safe from recession.
www.businessinsider.com
September 6, 2025 at 1:11 PM
xlenc.bsky.social
The chief economist at Moody's is now openly anticipating a recession.
@Markzandi on twitter: The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump. Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.
August 4, 2025 at 8:02 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody Analytics:
Mark Zandi @Markzandi. 5h We have a year's worth of economic data since Liberation Day, when President Trump announced much higher tariffs on most imported goods and countries, and the data are definitive; the tariffs have done significant damage to the economy. Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls. Also, since that day, inflation has accelerated, with the consumer expenditure deflator increasing at a 3% year-over-year pace, up from 2.5% before the tariffs and well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. And the trend lines don't look good, especially as the economic fallout from the Iran War hits with full force. The higher energy and other commodity prices caused by the war threaten to do even more economic damage than the tariffs, further undermining growth and pushing inflation higher. The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested. This chart tracks the economic trends of job growth and inflation following "Liberation Day" in 2025. Job Growth Stalls: The blue bars indicate that average monthly job growth decreased significantly from early 2025 highs, reaching negative numbers by late 2025.  Inflation Accelerates: The green line shows PCE inflation steadily increasing from approximately 2.5% in early 2025 to over 2.9% by early 2026.  Sources: The data is compiled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and Moody's Analytics. 
May 4, 2026 at 6:56 PM
franknez.bsky.social
Chief Economist Now Issues Warning To Expect A Recession By End of Year

#Recession #Economy #EconomyNews #Economist #Economics #News #MarkZandi #USEconomy #USEconomyNews #USEconomics #FinanceNews #BusinessNews #WallStreet #EconomicCollapse #EconomicDownturn #Markets #MarketCrash #USNews
Chief Economist Now Issues Warning To Expect A Recession By End of Year
Mark Zandi warns of a potential recession by end of year as economic indicators show worrying trends. The latest in U.S. economics.
franknez.com
September 3, 2025 at 12:19 AM
bluevirginia.bsky.social
Want higher inflation and unemployment in addition to killing our democracy, environment, etc? Then by all means VOTE REPUBLICAN! bluevirginia.us/2024/06/thur... h/t @TVietor08 @Markzandi
June 20, 2024 at 11:55 PM
seanbrodrick.bsky.social
That chart was from economist Mark Zandi. You can read his thread on this topic on the dead bird site at: x.com/Markzandi/st...
Mark Zandi on X: "The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s https://t.co/0e36kDDmgc" / X
The Trump administration’s policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration’s trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy’s https://t.co/0e36kDDmgc
x.com
April 21, 2025 at 2:59 PM
jjnmnwww.bsky.social
U.S. economy exceeds $30T in size,output is far from evenly distributed; while large/economically diverse states like CA dominate contributions to national GDP, many smaller states contribute less <0.5% each; infographic maps share of U.S. GDP by state based on data from @Markzandi @Moodys
December 17, 2025 at 2:38 AM
kevinleecaster.bsky.social
Yes, he wants to distract from Epstein, Gaza, and his failure to do anything whatsoever towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine, but he also is desperate to distract from the economy too.
Mark Zandi @ @Markzandi The economy is on the precipice of recession. That's the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump. Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.
August 11, 2025 at 3:27 PM
modschowdotcom.bsky.social
Disagree with #MarkZandi. To start, the housing market needs a correction. Prices and rents are out of control, globally. This push for interest rate drop is Buisiness (private equity firms/hedge funds) push for a form of bailout from the hit they are taking because of the immigration crackdown.
July 15, 2025 at 7:06 AM
banneduser.space
we all know the economy is heading into shit so far but this chart is executive dashboard slop. If you see this chart just know that it's bullshit being peddled off Mark Zandi's desk cause it makes no gd sense and that's not how probability with

xcancel.com/Markzandi/st...
September 16, 2025 at 6:44 PM
news-feed.bsky.social
@opinion: 📈 BREAKING:
- US Dec. Consumer Prices Increase 0.3% M/M; Est. 0.2%
- US Dec. Core Consumer Prices Rise 0.3% M/M; Est. 0.3%

🎥 @JonathanJLevin is LIVE with @Markzandi and @AllisonSchrager to break down the latest data https://t.co/Oa47tMrIFm
January 11, 2024 at 1:35 PM
paulginva.bsky.social
Mark Zandi has a very good🧵 on X about what is likely to happen to our economy if America loses it global safe-haven status. In addition to what he says, I worry about the strategic implications. There is no obvious replacement for the US, likely meaning a long period of
x.com/Markzandi/st...
Mark Zandi @Markzandi The Trump administration's policies are set to severely diminish the economy, not only for the next few months but for years. The administration's trade war is undermining the global safe-haven status of the U.S., which has provided incalculable benefits, including our economy's exceptionalism. [IMAGE] The graph depicts the 5-year CDS-implied expected default frequency for several countries, indicating the perceived risk of default on their debt. A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that acts as insurance against a bond default. The higher the CDS spread, the greater the perceived risk of default. Key observations from the graph: The U.S. (blue line) shows a notable increase in expected default frequency around the time of the 2023 debt ceiling fight and the Fitch downgrade, suggesting increased investor concern about U.S. debt. Germany (green line) generally exhibits a lower expected default frequency, indicating its perceived stability as a safe-haven asset. The United Kingdom (light blue line), Australia (red line), and Japan (purple line) show relatively stable and lower default frequencies compared to the U.S. Events such as the April 2nd tariff announcements also appear to have influenced the perceived risk of default for the U.S.
April 22, 2025 at 12:54 PM
franknez.bsky.social
Chief Economist is Now Warning A Third of The U.S. is Already in A Recession

#Economy #EconomyNews #Economics #Recession #News #USNews #USEconomy #RecessionFears #Recession2025 #MarkZandi #Economist #MSN #EconomicTimes #EconomicCollapse #2008Crisis #Finance #BusinessNews
Chief Economist is Now Warning A Third of The U.S. is Already in A Recession
Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warns that one-third of the U.S. economy faces recession risks. Learn more.
franknez.com
August 28, 2025 at 12:33 AM