We might keep NC-1, and flip NC-9 and NC-11
Wild
Wild
November 4, 2026 at 1:53 AM
We might keep NC-1, and flip NC-9 and NC-11
Wild
Wild
3 more GOP House seats flipping to the Dems, per AP:
CO-5 - Rep. Jeff Crank R-CO loses
OH-10 - Rep. Mike Turner R-OH loses
NC-9 - Rep. Richard Hudson R-NC loses
CO-5 - Rep. Jeff Crank R-CO loses
OH-10 - Rep. Mike Turner R-OH loses
NC-9 - Rep. Richard Hudson R-NC loses
November 5, 2026 at 7:54 PM
3 more GOP House seats flipping to the Dems, per AP:
CO-5 - Rep. Jeff Crank R-CO loses
OH-10 - Rep. Mike Turner R-OH loses
NC-9 - Rep. Richard Hudson R-NC loses
CO-5 - Rep. Jeff Crank R-CO loses
OH-10 - Rep. Mike Turner R-OH loses
NC-9 - Rep. Richard Hudson R-NC loses
Josh finds a range from 9-point underestimates in
Georgia, NC & Texas to 1-point in Kansas.
Average was 4.75.
But perhaps the biggest miss was failing to poll Mississippi at all.
Georgia, NC & Texas to 1-point in Kansas.
Average was 4.75.
But perhaps the biggest miss was failing to poll Mississippi at all.
How Much Did Polls Underestimate Democrats? A First Measure … talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/how-m...
How Much Did Polls Underestimate Democrats? A First Measure …
A number of you have written in to ask how the polls...
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November 5, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Josh finds a range from 9-point underestimates in
Georgia, NC & Texas to 1-point in Kansas.
Average was 4.75.
But perhaps the biggest miss was failing to poll Mississippi at all.
Georgia, NC & Texas to 1-point in Kansas.
Average was 4.75.
But perhaps the biggest miss was failing to poll Mississippi at all.
So for NC Congressionals, looks like Dems will win 1, 2, 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
Not sure on 6
Not sure on 6
November 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM
So for NC Congressionals, looks like Dems will win 1, 2, 4, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14
Not sure on 6
Not sure on 6
NC was drawn to be a 11-3 Rep map
It is looking like it will end up 9-5 Dem, maybe 10-4
It is looking like it will end up 9-5 Dem, maybe 10-4
November 4, 2026 at 4:02 AM
NC was drawn to be a 11-3 Rep map
It is looking like it will end up 9-5 Dem, maybe 10-4
It is looking like it will end up 9-5 Dem, maybe 10-4
AP has now called 9 districts for Dems. Kalshi reckons they have an 81% chance of winning NC-03 too
November 7, 2026 at 11:58 AM
AP has now called 9 districts for Dems. Kalshi reckons they have an 81% chance of winning NC-03 too
Roy Cooper did well everywhere in North Carolina, but he did especially well in the Appalachian part of NC. Here are just a few 100K District shifts:
NC-86: D+50 (Pres 24) -> D+65 (Sen 26)
NC-87: R+45 -> R+26
NC-88: R+13 -> D+11
NC-89: D+15 -> D+39
NC-90: R+13 -> D+7
NC-91: R+17 -> D+9
NC-86: D+50 (Pres 24) -> D+65 (Sen 26)
NC-87: R+45 -> R+26
NC-88: R+13 -> D+11
NC-89: D+15 -> D+39
NC-90: R+13 -> D+7
NC-91: R+17 -> D+9
November 7, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Roy Cooper did well everywhere in North Carolina, but he did especially well in the Appalachian part of NC. Here are just a few 100K District shifts:
NC-86: D+50 (Pres 24) -> D+65 (Sen 26)
NC-87: R+45 -> R+26
NC-88: R+13 -> D+11
NC-89: D+15 -> D+39
NC-90: R+13 -> D+7
NC-91: R+17 -> D+9
NC-86: D+50 (Pres 24) -> D+65 (Sen 26)
NC-87: R+45 -> R+26
NC-88: R+13 -> D+11
NC-89: D+15 -> D+39
NC-90: R+13 -> D+7
NC-91: R+17 -> D+9
Tafoya (MN-SEN)
Demuth (MN-GOV)
Finstad* (MN-1) in danger
Wagner* (MO-2)
Flint (MT-1)
Harding (NE-2)
Lombardo (NV-GOV)
Flippo (NV-2)
Sununu (NH-SEN)
Van Drew* (NJ-2)
Kean* (NJ-7)
Lawler* (NY-17)
Whatley (NC-SEN)
Foxx* (NC-2)
McDowell* (NC-6)
Hudson* (NC-9)
Balkcom (NC-11)
Knott* (NC-13)
Demuth (MN-GOV)
Finstad* (MN-1) in danger
Wagner* (MO-2)
Flint (MT-1)
Harding (NE-2)
Lombardo (NV-GOV)
Flippo (NV-2)
Sununu (NH-SEN)
Van Drew* (NJ-2)
Kean* (NJ-7)
Lawler* (NY-17)
Whatley (NC-SEN)
Foxx* (NC-2)
McDowell* (NC-6)
Hudson* (NC-9)
Balkcom (NC-11)
Knott* (NC-13)
November 6, 2026 at 12:14 AM
Tafoya (MN-SEN)
Demuth (MN-GOV)
Finstad* (MN-1) in danger
Wagner* (MO-2)
Flint (MT-1)
Harding (NE-2)
Lombardo (NV-GOV)
Flippo (NV-2)
Sununu (NH-SEN)
Van Drew* (NJ-2)
Kean* (NJ-7)
Lawler* (NY-17)
Whatley (NC-SEN)
Foxx* (NC-2)
McDowell* (NC-6)
Hudson* (NC-9)
Balkcom (NC-11)
Knott* (NC-13)
Demuth (MN-GOV)
Finstad* (MN-1) in danger
Wagner* (MO-2)
Flint (MT-1)
Harding (NE-2)
Lombardo (NV-GOV)
Flippo (NV-2)
Sununu (NH-SEN)
Van Drew* (NJ-2)
Kean* (NJ-7)
Lawler* (NY-17)
Whatley (NC-SEN)
Foxx* (NC-2)
McDowell* (NC-6)
Hudson* (NC-9)
Balkcom (NC-11)
Knott* (NC-13)
Looks like the AP has finally called a bunch of the NC races. 9 total blue seats officially called in NC for now, with the tenth probably going to a recount.
The remaining 4 seats all have Republicans barely leading, but none have been called.
They gerrymandered for a 3-11, but they got a 10-4 😂
The remaining 4 seats all have Republicans barely leading, but none have been called.
They gerrymandered for a 3-11, but they got a 10-4 😂
November 5, 2026 at 8:47 PM
Looks like the AP has finally called a bunch of the NC races. 9 total blue seats officially called in NC for now, with the tenth probably going to a recount.
The remaining 4 seats all have Republicans barely leading, but none have been called.
They gerrymandered for a 3-11, but they got a 10-4 😂
The remaining 4 seats all have Republicans barely leading, but none have been called.
They gerrymandered for a 3-11, but they got a 10-4 😂
NC went full dummymander. 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, and 14 all flipped and we held 1. nearly got them all!
November 4, 2026 at 7:25 PM
NC went full dummymander. 5, 6, 9, 11, 13, and 14 all flipped and we held 1. nearly got them all!
Yes, it is early…
And, yes, this will change but…
As of 9:26, Repubs are behind in *every district in North Carolina*.
** Guys, NC is the 4th most gerrymandered state in the country. **
And, yes, this will change but…
As of 9:26, Repubs are behind in *every district in North Carolina*.
** Guys, NC is the 4th most gerrymandered state in the country. **
November 4, 2026 at 2:36 AM
Yes, it is early…
And, yes, this will change but…
As of 9:26, Repubs are behind in *every district in North Carolina*.
** Guys, NC is the 4th most gerrymandered state in the country. **
And, yes, this will change but…
As of 9:26, Repubs are behind in *every district in North Carolina*.
** Guys, NC is the 4th most gerrymandered state in the country. **
VA-2, AZ-6, NC-9, SC-1 and CO-5 are all military & vet heavy districts -- currently held by republicans -- and going blue.
November 4, 2026 at 4:17 AM
VA-2, AZ-6, NC-9, SC-1 and CO-5 are all military & vet heavy districts -- currently held by republicans -- and going blue.
That just makes me sad.
Only a 9 hour drive to great NC BBQ!
Only a 9 hour drive to great NC BBQ!
November 7, 2026 at 5:05 PM
That just makes me sad.
Only a 9 hour drive to great NC BBQ!
Only a 9 hour drive to great NC BBQ!
Traveling to #Charlotte NC / #RockHill SC November 9-12th 🏎️ - 📧 in bio!
November 5, 2026 at 12:19 AM
Traveling to #Charlotte NC / #RockHill SC November 9-12th 🏎️ - 📧 in bio!
NC accomplished 4 of 9. Absolutely remarkable results
November 6, 2026 at 2:30 AM
NC accomplished 4 of 9. Absolutely remarkable results
Ojeda winning NC-9 is also a big win for Dems as well.
November 4, 2026 at 3:13 AM
Ojeda winning NC-9 is also a big win for Dems as well.
Priority order:
1/2: WI + NC
3: IA
4: AK
5: UT
6/7/8/9: FL + LA + KS + SC
1/2: WI + NC
3: IA
4: AK
5: UT
6/7/8/9: FL + LA + KS + SC
November 9, 2026 at 12:31 AM
Priority order:
1/2: WI + NC
3: IA
4: AK
5: UT
6/7/8/9: FL + LA + KS + SC
1/2: WI + NC
3: IA
4: AK
5: UT
6/7/8/9: FL + LA + KS + SC
It’s looking like NC Democrats have a good chance to flip NC house Districts 13 & 9
November 4, 2026 at 3:13 AM
It’s looking like NC Democrats have a good chance to flip NC house Districts 13 & 9
Dems barely lost the WH amidst a global anti-incumbent wave, with a candidate in place for only three months, lost 4 Senate seats in a bad map year (14 Dems, 9 Reps, 2 Is up), and net gained a seat in the House, & would’ve won it had GA/NC not done last-minute gerrymandering. A loss but narrow.
November 6, 2026 at 9:43 PM
Dems barely lost the WH amidst a global anti-incumbent wave, with a candidate in place for only three months, lost 4 Senate seats in a bad map year (14 Dems, 9 Reps, 2 Is up), and net gained a seat in the House, & would’ve won it had GA/NC not done last-minute gerrymandering. A loss but narrow.
NEW: Dems swept supreme court races in key states below—and could gain 2028 majorities in NC, OH, & TX:
NC: Stays 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
OH: 6-1 R to 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
TX: 9-0 R to 5-4 R.
Need 1/3 flips in 2028.
KS & MI stay 6-1 D.
MT moderate/liberal bloc retains majority
NC: Stays 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
OH: 6-1 R to 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
TX: 9-0 R to 5-4 R.
Need 1/3 flips in 2028.
KS & MI stay 6-1 D.
MT moderate/liberal bloc retains majority
NEW: State courts remain a powerful bulwark for democracy when Donald Trump, Republicans, and the federal courts seek to undermine fair elections, civil rights, and the rule of law.
We detailed 8 states with key supreme court elections to watch next month:
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-voters...
We detailed 8 states with key supreme court elections to watch next month:
www.the-downballot.com/p/how-voters...
November 4, 2026 at 9:49 PM
NEW: Dems swept supreme court races in key states below—and could gain 2028 majorities in NC, OH, & TX:
NC: Stays 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
OH: 6-1 R to 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
TX: 9-0 R to 5-4 R.
Need 1/3 flips in 2028.
KS & MI stay 6-1 D.
MT moderate/liberal bloc retains majority
NC: Stays 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
OH: 6-1 R to 5-2 R.
Need 2/3 flips in 2028.
TX: 9-0 R to 5-4 R.
Need 1/3 flips in 2028.
KS & MI stay 6-1 D.
MT moderate/liberal bloc retains majority
NC GOP gerrymandered 14 districts to get to 11 Republicans to 3 Democrats.
NYTimes currently expecting only 5 Reps to 9!! Dems. I'm stunned. 🥹
NYTimes currently expecting only 5 Reps to 9!! Dems. I'm stunned. 🥹
November 4, 2026 at 3:19 AM
NC GOP gerrymandered 14 districts to get to 11 Republicans to 3 Democrats.
NYTimes currently expecting only 5 Reps to 9!! Dems. I'm stunned. 🥹
NYTimes currently expecting only 5 Reps to 9!! Dems. I'm stunned. 🥹
Literally what occurred with the NC 2023 gerrymander. Now we have 9 of 14 in our blue delegation.
The taste of overreach is sweet.
The taste of overreach is sweet.
November 6, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Literally what occurred with the NC 2023 gerrymander. Now we have 9 of 14 in our blue delegation.
The taste of overreach is sweet.
The taste of overreach is sweet.
