Spyros Andreopoulos
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thinicemacro.bsky.social
Spyros Andreopoulos
@thinicemacro.bsky.social
67 followers 30 following 66 posts
Macroeconomist and consultant, politics junkie, wine lover. Ex ECB economist. Blogs on global macro, central banks, Europe, on thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com.
Company website: https://thinicemacro.com
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thinicemacro.bsky.social
The #Treasury #buyback operation and the possible use of FIMA for #yen #intervention have one thing in common: they signal that Washington is nervous about #Treasury #yields. That piles on the pressure for #Warsh to deliver a #framework for #Fed policy in his #JacksonHole speech.
August 20, 2026 at 12:44 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Yen #intervention: the modalities of future interventions betray #USTreasury nervousness about #treasuries, undermining #confidence in both #JPY and #USD
👇
thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com/p/the-yen-an...
The Yen and the US Treasury's Tightrope Walk
Afterthoughts on yen intervention
thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com
August 15, 2026 at 11:33 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Want one single off the shelf #economic #indicator to watch that will sound the alarm bells 🔔 for #equities? See my latest post 👇

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Profit warning
Watch the profit share in GDP.
open.substack.com
July 18, 2026 at 10:49 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Macro in times of the #AI #bubble: I’ve joined the dots and filled in the blanks in the latest #BIS Annual Report. 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
ArtificiaI Exuberance
The view from the tower of Basel
open.substack.com
July 12, 2026 at 9:09 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
A new #centralbank consensus has emerged - but there’s an area that is not part of the consensus.
My latest #Substack - subscription is free 👇
#Sintra
#QE #forwardguidance #AI #rates #financialstability
#Fed #ECB #BankofEngland

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The New Central Bank Consensus
… and how it doesn't apply to AI
open.substack.com
July 5, 2026 at 9:56 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
My thoughts on the implications of the #US-#Iran deal for the #ECB on Bloomberg
June 17, 2026 at 6:56 AM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
petertl.bsky.social
The power of indexing: members of the S&P 500 Index of largest US companies have slower earnings growth than the next 500, but enjoy higher valuations.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...
Breakingviews - Passive investors actively pump up market bubble
Index-tracking funds are on ⁠track to ​buy a large chunk ​of the shares sold in SpaceX’s record $75 ​billion offering. ​With more than half the ‌U.S. ⁠market now invested by hands-off managers, benchm...
www.reuters.com
June 5, 2026 at 7:52 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#ECB nearing point of no return for 2nd #ratehike - my preview of June, and beyond. 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
ECB Preview: Nearing Point of No Return for Second Hike
Looking beyond June
open.substack.com
June 5, 2026 at 8:37 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Fed: the dot plot isn’t forward guidance!
#Markets: the dot plot is forward guidance, but you’re too data dependent.
#Warsh: I don’t like forward guidance, I’ll get rid of the dot plot. I also don’t like data dependence.
🤯🙈
June 3, 2026 at 7:14 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
🇺🇸 #Warsh at the #Fed: why reducing the #balancesheet to enable ✂️ in #fedfunds won’t work: I’ve done the math 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Warsh at the Fed: Doves Have Taken Flight
And: some unpleasant balance sheet arithmetic
open.substack.com
May 24, 2026 at 10:08 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
The case for #euro #stablecoins - the #digitaleuro is not enough
#ThinIceMacro #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The Case for Euro Stablecoins
... and some thoughts on President Lagarde's case against
open.substack.com
May 16, 2026 at 9:55 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
In case you were wondering why #Taiwan, and not #trade, is the most important issue for #Xi. #USChina #summit #TrumpXi
May 14, 2026 at 9:48 AM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
andylangenkamp.bsky.social
@thinicemacro.bsky.social: We're no longer simply dealing with uncertainty within a stable framework; there's uncertainty about the framework itself. Once the framework becomes unstable, almost anything can be interpreted as touching on sovereignty thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com/p/geopolitic...
Geopolitical World
Delphi debrief
thinicemacroeconomics.substack.com
May 11, 2026 at 3:10 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Fed, #ECB, and #BoJ decisions going forward should be shaped by their #credibility: my latest #Substack 👇

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Fed, ECB, and BoJ: A Matter of Credibility
Fed: don’t lose it; ECB: use it; Japan: keep paying the price
open.substack.com
May 3, 2026 at 9:52 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#ECB: On a Highway to Hike - But with Offramp
#ECB validated market expectations of June hike. Posture: default outcome next meeting is hike, unless conflict ends: a path to a hike, with a conditional offramp. Overall, comms less preemptive, more reactive – but determined.
April 30, 2026 at 2:06 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
My preview of the #ECB #meeting 👇

open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…#ThinIceMacror#globalmacror#centralbanksk#eurozonen#euror#marketst#bondsd#fxfx
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…
April 26, 2026 at 4:09 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Waller’s warning about #inflation is significant as he is both a dove and has called the economy right more than anyone: check out my latest #Substack 👇 - plus: implications of #Hungary’s #election for #Europe and the #euro.
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Waller's Warning
plus: Pull to the Euro - Hungary edition
open.substack.com
April 19, 2026 at 9:00 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Does shrinking the #Fed #balance_sheet really enable rate ✂️ My latest #Substack 👇

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Warsh and the Fed's Balance Sheet
What read-across to fed funds?
open.substack.com
April 11, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
centreeuropeanref.bsky.social
The stakes of the election could not be higher: if Orbán wins, #Hungary will continue its slide into autocracy domestically and will keep blocking joint action at the EU level wrote @zecsaky.bsky.social in her @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight, read here:
Can Hungary's opposition win and restore democracy?
After 15 years, Viktor Orbán could lose power. But the opposition’s path is fraught with obstacles, from a lopsided electoral system to the extraordinary difficulty of restoring democracy even if…
buff.ly
April 8, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
mijrahman.bsky.social
The vast majority of Hungary's 7.6 million voters have made up their minds regarding where their crosses are going on Sunday's ballots. Few of the 350K or so who haven't and who might yet vote are unlikely to be persuaded by the razzamatazz provided by Vance's soiree in town 1/
April 7, 2026 at 2:58 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Piece on the #geopolitical role of the #euro and what the #ECB can do to support it.
With @sandertordoir.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The ECB and the Euro's Global Role
The ECB can do more
open.substack.com
April 7, 2026 at 4:18 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#eurozone selling price expectations saw a sharp rise in March, but so far only for #industry.
#inflation #oil #Iran
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
April 2, 2026 at 8:54 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Resilience: world #exports vs #US effective #tariff rate

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
April 1, 2026 at 8:33 AM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
carlomasala1.bsky.social
No matter what Trump’s response is (and we have a pretty good idea what it will be), no defense secretary has ever so elegantly denied the U.S. commitment to Article 5.
thebulwark.com The Bulwark @thebulwark.com · Mar 31
Q: "Is the U.S. still committed to NATO's collective defense?"

Hegseth: "That's a decision that will be left to the president…The president's pointing out you don't have much of an alliance if you have countries that are not willing to stand with you."
March 31, 2026 at 4:38 PM
Reposted by Spyros Andreopoulos
paulblustein.bsky.social
Have you heard the one about the Iranian ploy to dethrone the dollar by demanding payment in CNY instead of USD for oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz?
No joke—it’s raising quite a ballyhoo!
It’s the latest bout of alarmism over dollar dominance. Here’s my take:
fortune.com/2026/03/30/p...
Dollar doomsayers can relax: Iran's 'petroyuan' gambit won't topple the greenback | Fortune
The petrodollar story is overstated, and increasingly outdated.
fortune.com
March 31, 2026 at 10:28 AM