why we all stopped worrying and learned to love the bomb—until now

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Bayesian

This video is now publicly available. I am keeping the original announcement below. But to watch see The Knowledge Nexus. The de-animated slides are available here (but the usual advisory: the slides ...

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Richard Carrier has a PhD in Ancient History and the History of Philosophy from Columbia University. He specialises…

This Saturday I’ll be giving a free public lecture online:  “Josephus on Jesus: How Likely Fake? A Bayesian Tutorial in Historical Reasoning.” I’ll analyze the two passages in Josephus supposedly ment...

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Christian Apologetics, Bible, Biblical Christianity, Christian Faith, Agnostic, Evangelical, Atheism, Atheist, Creation, John W. Loftus, David Madison

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An international team of researchers has identified a quantum counterpart to Bayes’ rule. The likelihood you assign to an event is influenced by what you already believe about the surrounding conditions....

What does Bayesian epistemology have to say about conspiracy theorising, and how might this inform the generalist versus particularist debate? This paper addresses that question by applying Bayes’ ...

Bayes Theorem feels complex, but its logic mirrors how people naturally update beliefs. We explain Bayesian reasoning through real-life examples before introducing the formula, making Bayes intuitive ...

Christian Apologetics, Bible, Biblical Christianity, Christian Faith, Agnostic, Evangelical, Atheism, Atheist, Creation, John W. Loftus, David Madison

Perhaps the most important formula in probability. Help fund future projects: https://www.patreon.com/3blue1brown An equally valuable form of support is to simply share some of the videos. Special thanks to these supporters: http://3b1b.co/bayes-thanks Home page: https://www.3blue1brown.com The quick proof: https://youtu.be/U_85TaXbeIo Interactive made by Reddit user Thoggalluth: https://nskobelevs.github.io/p5js/BayesTheorem/ The study with Steve: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124 http://www.its.caltech.edu/~camerer/Ec101/JudgementUncertainty.pdf You can read more about Kahneman and Tversky's work in Thinking Fast and Slow, or in one of my favorite books, The Undoing Project. Contents: 0:00 - Intro example 4:09 - Generalizing as a formula 10:13 - Making probability intuitive 13:35 - Issues with the Steve example Thanks to these viewers for their contributions to translations Gujarati: Hitesh12358, Pragna1991 Hebrew: Omer Tuchfeld Italian: @crampaldo ------------------ These animations are largely made using manim, a scrappy open-source python library: https://github.com/3b1b/manim If you want to check it out, I feel compelled to warn you that it's not the most well-documented tool, and it has many other quirks you might expect in a library someone wrote with only their own use in mind. Music by Vincent Rubinetti. Download the music on Bandcamp: https://vincerubinetti.bandcamp.com/album/the-music-of-3blue1brown Stream the music on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/album/1dVyjwS8FBqXhRunaG5W5u If you want to contribute translated subtitles or to help review those that have already been made by others and need approval, you can click the gear icon in the video and go to subtitles/cc, then "add subtitles/cc". I really appreciate those who do this, as it helps make the lessons accessible to more people. ------------------ 3blue1brown is a channel about animating math, in all senses of the word animate. And you know the drill with YouTube, if you want to stay posted on new videos, subscribe: http://3b1b.co/subscribe Various social media stuffs: Website: https://www.3blue1brown.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/3blue1brown Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/3blue1brown Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/3blue1brown_animations/ Patreon: https://patreon.com/3blue1brown Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/3blue1brown