#thinicemacro
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thinicemacro.bsky.social
‼️ Joint piece with @sandertordoir.bsky.social on the #ECB #geopolitical tools and how it advances the role of the #euro 👇
#CER
#ThinIceMacro
centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · Feb 20
The #ECB just made a geopolitical move. At the Munich Security Conference, Christine #Lagarde announced permanent euro liquidity lines for foreign central banks from 2026 – a quiet but important step towards a more international euro.
February 20, 2026 at 10:59 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Why #Germany’s #industry continues to struggle: open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#eurozone #economy #euro #ECB #globalmacro #thinicemacro
German Industry: An Autopsy
Murder or suicide?
open.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 7:02 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Institutional structure by itself will not be sufficient to maintain Fed #independence.
#markets #fiscaldominance #Powell #Bessent #Trump #USdollar #inflation #interestrates #governmentdebt #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Fed Independence: Pressure Cooking
People make institutions
open.substack.com
August 31, 2025 at 8:13 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem... My #ECB review. Two interesting morsels out of an otherwise boring meeting. #eurozone #euro #thinicemacro
ECB Meeting Review: What Monetary Policy?
We do digital euro now
open.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 4:14 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Does shrinking the #Fed #balance_sheet really enable rate ✂️ My latest #Substack 👇

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Warsh and the Fed's Balance Sheet
What read-across to fed funds?
open.substack.com
April 11, 2026 at 11:34 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
The case for #euro #stablecoins - the #digitaleuro is not enough
#ThinIceMacro #EU
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The Case for Euro Stablecoins
... and some thoughts on President Lagarde's case against
open.substack.com
May 16, 2026 at 9:55 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#ECB nearing point of no return for 2nd #ratehike - my preview of June, and beyond. 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
ECB Preview: Nearing Point of No Return for Second Hike
Looking beyond June
open.substack.com
June 5, 2026 at 8:37 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
“Just don’t mention the #hike.” My #comms guide for the #ECB meeting - see my latest #substack newsletter, sub is free 👇

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...

#ECBmeeting #euro #EURUSD #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
ECB Preview: Don't Mention the Hike
A comms guide
open.substack.com
December 13, 2025 at 10:35 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#Macro in times of the #AI #bubble: I’ve joined the dots and filled in the blanks in the latest #BIS Annual Report. 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
ArtificiaI Exuberance
The view from the tower of Basel
open.substack.com
July 12, 2026 at 9:09 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Recent developments strengthen the case that #UStariffs will lower #inflation in affected economies.
#Trump #Eurozone #ECB #Japan #BoJ #euro #yen #China #exports #tradewar #centralbanks #globalmacro #thinicemacro
Trump's Tariff Win: Lower Inflation Outside the US
Case for disinflation everywhere else now stronger
open.substack.com
August 10, 2025 at 10:28 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Equity #investors should look under the hood for the drivers of exchange rate moves to appreciate the read across for #stocks.
#thinicemacro #globalmacro #USeconomy #stockmarket #Europe #EU
FX and Stock Prices: Look Under the Hood
Is a strong currency good or bad for stocks?
open.substack.com
August 2, 2025 at 1:19 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
www.linkedin.com/posts/spyros...

In 🇩🇪, a few thoughts on the situation in #Japan 🇯🇵 #JPY #JGB #BoJ #ThinIceMacro #globalmacro #econtwitter
Steckt Japan in der Schuldenkrise? | Spyros Andreopoulos 🇺🇦
Die Situation in #Japan sieht brenzlich 🔥 aus. Der #Yen wertet ab 📉 und die #Renditen steigen 📈 weiter. Die Sitzung der #BankofJapan scheint zunächst für Stabilität gesorgt zu haben, aber von Ent...
www.linkedin.com
January 23, 2026 at 1:49 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
A new #centralbank consensus has emerged - but there’s an area that is not part of the consensus.
My latest #Substack - subscription is free 👇
#Sintra
#QE #forwardguidance #AI #rates #financialstability
#Fed #ECB #BankofEngland

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro

open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
The New Central Bank Consensus
… and how it doesn't apply to AI
open.substack.com
July 5, 2026 at 9:56 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
🇺🇸 #Warsh at the #Fed: why reducing the #balancesheet to enable ✂️ in #fedfunds won’t work: I’ve done the math 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Warsh at the Fed: Doves Have Taken Flight
And: some unpleasant balance sheet arithmetic
open.substack.com
May 24, 2026 at 10:08 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
My preview of the #ECB #meeting 👇

open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…#ThinIceMacror#globalmacror#centralbanksk#eurozonen#euror#marketst#bondsd#fxfx
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…
April 26, 2026 at 4:09 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#eurozone selling price expectations saw a sharp rise in March, but so far only for #industry.
#inflation #oil #Iran
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
April 2, 2026 at 8:54 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Resilience: world #exports vs #US effective #tariff rate

#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
April 1, 2026 at 8:33 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Stunning performance of #China #exports since the #Trump #tariffs 👇
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
March 31, 2026 at 10:30 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
How #ECB has responded to #oil shocks in the past and what it means for now (incl. this week's #ECBmeeting). #Iran #inflation #energy #oilshock #Europe #centralbanks
#ThinIceMacro #globalmacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
ECB and Oil: Past to Present
Market too hawkish
open.substack.com
March 17, 2026 at 9:39 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
🛢️Fun fact on #US #economy and #oilprice spike👇
share of #gasoline and #energy in #US #consumer #spending at all-time low of 2% in Dec 2025 (latest PCE), equal to Jan 2002 and lower only during Covid (WTI 19$).
#FOMC
#Iran #war #oil #oilprice
#ThinIceMacro
#globalmacro
March 2, 2026 at 11:47 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Exploring #Hassett at the #Fed 🪑
US #monetarypolicy will be #procyclical next year, but the #economy will limit the scope for #rate ✂️ even for a Hassett Fed. #Boom in ’26 could transition to #bust in ’27.
My latest #Substack 👇

 open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ThinIceMacro
https://open.substack.com/pub/thinicemac…
December 5, 2025 at 4:21 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#Fed #rstar #centralbanks #bonds #ECB #monetarypolicy
#globalmacro #thinicemacro
Fed vs Bond Markets: Measuring the Stars
Do neutral rate estimates matter? Should they?
open.substack.com
November 8, 2025 at 6:14 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
#ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood
👉 substack.com/@spyrosandre...

#accounts #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Spyros Andreopoulos (@spyrosandreopoulos)
🇪🇺 ECB Sep meeting minutes: easing bias under the hood? 💶 👉 The song remains the same. The controversies covered the usual topics: the #euro, whether it would appreciate further, and what it does to ...
substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
The #ECB #governingcouncil will keep rates unch in September. I exp staff #inflation #projections to be lowered slightly. That should make for more nuanced #communication than in July.
#eurozone #euro #centralbankmeetings #Lagarde #Fed #globalmacro #thinicemacro
open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt - ECB Preview: Wait-and-Watch Continues
... but more nuance on inflation
open.substack.com
September 7, 2025 at 9:53 AM
thinicemacro.bsky.social
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close open.substack.com/pub/thinicem...
#ECB look to leave rates unch July 24. My central case remains for one more cut. A further increase in effective #tariff rate would tilt risks to 1.50%. #euroarea #US #Trump #euro #Lagarde #thinicemacro
Dispatch€s from Frankfurt: ECB: July Pause, Tariffs Are Close
The elephant in the room
open.substack.com
July 21, 2025 at 7:53 AM